Groupon playbook

Well Groupon has to be the storybook IPO of 2011 and it will probably be the biggest company on planet earth, sometimes what works for gigantic momentum plays (eg mega drag race) won’t work for anyone else.

They have billions of capital so can buy large high pressure sales forces. That gives them an incredible advantage like the army of timeshare condo salesman or if you have ever watched Tinmen, aluminum siding people.

In this case I’ve heard time and time again how well their sales tactics work. We just took a massage from a new business owner here in Hawaii. They have two sales reps here and she was promised a huge repeat installed base. Instead they doubled the number of groupons from 450 to 900 and doubled the term to 18 months on her. They now hold over $100k of her money and will pay her on 60 day terms and sounds like they will keep it all if redemptions don’t happen.

It’s brilliant because they get all the money upfront. As a small startup she feels she has no choice but to honor it. She is working basically 24-7 for no profit for groupon for the next year. And the rep is no where to be seen.

And let’s face it the customers haven’t turned out to be long term but very demanding price sensitive folks who won’t repeat. not something to build your business on.

What can we learn from this. Well for Groupon it’s an extraordinary opportunity with so many new businesses forming all the time and extremely profitable. But it sure won’t work for everybody…

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Startups and Drag Races

I get to go hear the presentations of both large and very small companies just about every Monday in my day job.

I’m always struck by the number of folks with less than six months of cash left who are running a drag race against competitors who have a billion dollar in cash.

While it is true that most of these companies have a better mousetrap. As the Russians used to say, “Quantity has a quality all it’s own.”. Or if you are a true aficionado of the Cold War there is this famous cartoon of two Russian generals sitting in a Paris cafe saying, “so who did win the air war over Europe?”

The point of course is that the fancy aerobatics don’t matter hen you ate staring down 20,000 tanks headed your way.

We may have our own opinions about Groupon and so forth, but let’s face it, they a billion dollars in cash so they have won this round. Trying to beat them now is just much harder. In the same way that a decade ago Amazon went public raised lots of money and this let it survive that great valley of Ecommerce death (anyone remember pets.com?) to be the leader.

So what is a startup to do? Well three pieces of advice

1. Think stealth play. Is there a segment that is protected? Taking that hyper local example. Are there places we’re you are not competing coupon for coupon.

2. Profitability. If you can spend as much money as the other guys, where in your customer base are there profits. Even if you have 10 customers, it’s often interesting to do a by customer cost analysis. I’m amazed how many companies could shrink 10% in revenues and double profits. Thats because customers are different. The substrategies here are typically selling another product to an existing customer (very cheap, like burglar alarm companies selling fire extinguishers too), cutting unprofitable customers (you know who you are) or lower costs on introduction (why go coast to coast before you make a city profitable ten use those profits to fund the next one)

3 Double your share by delighting. If you have small share, the easiest way isn’t to convince people they ate wrong selecting the market leader (the default choice of probably 80% of decision makers) but to find anther customer who look like someone who already loves you. The big guys ironically usually don’t need to worry about customer satisfaction because they are the default choice but as a small player you have no choice but to delight usually.

Finally just one more word. This is a good case where you can’t compare yourself with the leader or their strategy. I once saw a slide showing that if a $10m startup was valued the same way as the market leader, it would already be worth $500m. That’s not the point. Kind of like the corner coffee shop wishing it was Starbucks. It just isn’t. Not will leader strategies usually work for small players. That’s like me thinking I just adopt a Olympic weight lifters training strategy to get in shape. Sadly it’s not the same body I’m trying to get in shape.

Anyway enough said, the drag race isn’t for everyone. It’s the easiest to do but the least likely in most cases to work. Think stealth!

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The CEO Playbook

John and I were just talking about what we had learned after ten years worth of board meetings and innumerable discussions (maybe even confrontations with CEOs) from literally three continents. Seems to us that like marketing, there are play books everywhere. One of the most important one we’ve learned about in that time are the three different “plays” which CEOs seem to run. Sometimes I think they are more persona than they are plays, nonetheless, they are very distinct.

With the very sad passing of Steve Jobs, we’ve spent so many hours talking about his legacy and perhaps in that we see how CEOs can sometimes be Bill Gates, sometimes be Steve Jobs and sometimes be Jack Welch. The magic is in being able to switch in a way that makes sense to the reset of team. So here are the three personas we see:

Be Strategic!

We’ve debated long and hard but it does seem as if the most important job as CEO has is making sure their company is in the right market and in the right situation to achieve a durable position. Because if you don’t have a good base, what else really matters?

Having spent a small amount of time with Bill Gates in the early days of Microsoft, I think we can say that being in the right part of the industry with the right marketing play is absolutely critical. In that world, it was far better to be supplying a critical component that everyone needs rather than say being a reseller. It is why Microsoft has endured, but sadly Egghead Software didn’t. Retailers just didn’t have a comparative advantage compared to an enduring software asset.

Those are days when listening is very important and it is incredible to us how the biggest insights normally don’t come form the SVPs or the Board, but from someone way down in the organization. Bill’s real gift back then was knowing how to see past the hierarchy to the insight. It is why a lowly program manager could write a single memo and Microsoft went from being a proprietary networking company to embedding TCP/IP and the rest of the Internet stack into Windows. It is why Microsoft started a game group based on proprietary hardware and software running completely counter to its horizontal software started on PCs. (Thanks J!)

This is a tough job, but recognizing when the playing field is wrong and moving quickly is perhaps the first and most important job of a great CEO. And interestingly, the job is really to first write the think memo saying things are broken and here are the goals and then to cast a broad swath and really listen as far down in the organization as necessary for the answer.

Insanely Great Products

I’m using a MacBook Air connected with my iPhone 4G using Safari. What a change from 10 years ago! When I see the single button on the front of the iPhone, I think of all those Nokia, Samsung and Motorola phones I’ve had over the years, with buttons everywhere and confusing interfaces (why do you start a cell phone by pressing the red, End-Call key anyway).

If there is one person who personifies the maniacal obsession with getting every detail right, it has to be Steve Jobs. This is a really different kind of persona. Great products are designed by committee, they are designed in the right ecosystem (see the note above about strategy). They don’t come from think memos or big round tables, they come out of a few minds. The question is how do you find that person.

Actually, the sad part to me is that sometimes it just doesn’t seem that hard. The main point is to simplify the job, because the more multi-purpose the device, the harder it is to make it work. The original iPod is great example. The complexity of the iPad compared with say the purposefulness of the Nook Touch is perhaps another. It is just easier to design a great reader (30 day battery life, 7 inch e-ink) than to create a general purpose tablet that does everything.

As an interesting aside is that the greatness of the iPhone only happened because of the big strategic decisions that Steve Jobs made. That is, it is based on Unix (that’s what iOS is at the core), it is based on standard hardware (ARM core) and it works with every networking technology under the sun (3G, CDMA, Wifi, Bluetooth). Contrast that with the original Mac as an example when Apple took pride in its own standards (Appletalk, Motorola MC68000, AppleBus, etc.).

In the end though, the great advantage a founder has like Steve or Jeff Bezos is that they can say, “Because I’m the CEO, and I think it can be done.” as he said when  he chose to override engineers who thought the iMac wasn’t feasible, as quoted in TIME magazine (24 October 2005).

But in the end, maybe the one thing to remember for a CEO is, “always pick one button over two.”

Letting the Team Succeed

Maybe it is after you are in the right place and the product is actually going to be decent. Then it is a question of how do you get people to want to work and to be a team. As Steve Jobs said one of his greatest worries was that Apple would be like Disney without Walt. So ironically, while the Product person above sounds like an incredible dictator, the question is how to get the best.

Maybe Jack Welch is that icon with all to famous work to make GE a high function organization. His rules like a good person who fails should get another chance while a person who doesn’t share your values should leave even if they are a success, are good examples of how team management works.

This works perhaps because the strategy is right and general product direction is right, but how to get the team to do the right job as a mini-company where every division manager is their own CEO.

That’s the lesson in the end, we are talking about CEOs, but really we are talking about every leader in an organization. There are times when every boss has to be a Bill Gates and change the rules of the game. When they have to be like Steve Jobs and just insist on simplicity and finally when all that is working be Jack Welch and get their subordinates to do the same.

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Blooks and Blogs

I can’t believe it has been five years since The Marketing Playbook got published by Penguin. Quite a long ride for us. The more interesting thing is to see how much the book publishing business has changed. Now you don’t necessarily need a publisher, you can self-publish on Kindle. Now blogs commonly become books (blooks which are a cute name :0). For everything from Julie to Julia to 101 Things to do with your ex-wife’s dress.

Maybe that’s the future for everything but as barriers to entry fall and technology changes, that’s when the market really does evolve.

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Sorry not

Have posted in a while. Finally got up on WordPress for iPhone. And adding old posts back too.

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Welcome back to the Marketing Playbook

Because of me, we wiped out http://themarketingplaybook.com because of a virus and now I’m trying to recover it, but in the mean time we are back. Welcome everyone!

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New Media Playbook – 5 Rules

Back in March, I gave a talk entitled “5 Rules for Marketing in a New Media World” at the Economist Branding Summit in Shanghai. It was how to cope, as a marketer, with all growing choices and complexity of new media. The talk also draws on a venture capitalist perspective in both the US and China from working with entrepreneurs much more plugged in and creative than me.

Since giving the talk I have gotten a number of requests to see it posted. So here it is - download file. Also if you want it in Chinese, click here.

 

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Pickle Theory – Proof and Perceived Value

As marketing people we have often emphasized the power of proof. As venture capitalists, one of our jobs is assessing the value of companies that do not have a public market (and hopefully also maximizing that “value” in the final return to our investors). Interestingly it seems these two don’t always mesh. What do I mean?

A collegue of mine who runs a start up (and who is in the business of maximizing the perceived value of his company) pointed out what he called thePickle Theory of Value. It goes like this.

pickle theory.jpg

When you first start your company, you generally have NO concrete evidence that it will ever make money. No customers, no product, no revenue and quite the opposite of profits. Yet, if you do a good job of positioning the vision, the market opportunity and the team, you get an incredible amount of credit for the future value the company could create.

Then as you start going, you still get pretty much credit if you actually ship your product/launch your site etc. And it works (regardless of whether this really generates any real money). But you get hammered if it doesn’t.

Then this horrible thing happens. You actually get out there in the market. You start generating the initial evdience. You start to generate money. You actually have financial statements. And guess what, once you have something to look at, people look at it. And with this scrutiny the amount of credit you get for your progress is likely to go down. That’s the bottom part of the pickle.

Here’s the hopeful part. If you keep growing and keep making progress with some consistency, people start giving you credit for it continuing long into the future and the value you can command relative to the evidence you have goes back up again. (Witness Google’s PE).

The trick is to try to keep your company from having a long pickle.

 

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SF Bags – The Art of the Upsell

I love SFBags or Waterfield Design. They have the best most versitile laptop computer bags.

I also love some things they do in their site. Especially the build-your-own section. They ask you a bunch of questions to customize your bag, the fun friendly language of these upsells is great:

  • 3 Add a Flap for $15: No sir, I don’t like to/Yes indeed
  • 4 Add a Shoulder Strap for $12: Not into the strap/Give me the strap
  • 5 Add a Piggybak: No I’ll Just Suffer/Got to Have the Piggyback

I wish more sites had this kind of personality.

 

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Economist Roundtable: Shanghai – March 28/29

Really excited to be speaking at the Economist’s Third China Branding RoundtableStanding out in a crowd. It’s at the Pudong Shangri-La, Shanghai on Tuesday March 28th 2006 – Wednesday March 29th 2006. To find out more, click here.

I am honored to be presenting along with Professor Lydia Price of the China Europe International Business School. We will be talking about new media and how to think about it. Anongst other things, she has written (and will explore here) a case study about China’s Super Voice Girl that makes American Idol look like a Junior Highschool talent show.

Should be fun!

 

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